COVID Guanajuato: Pandemic could be over by summer, experts predict

Published March 8, 2021 (sp)

Experts from the University of Washington foresee that COVID pandemic could be almost eradicated in Guanajuato by mid-year if sanitary measures are strictly followed.

Guanajuato – The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington estimated that by the summer of 2021 the COVID pandemic could be almost over in Guanajuato, as long as sanitary measures are not relaxed.

In its latest updates as of July 1, the IHME indicates that infections, deaths, and hospital occupancy will continue to decline over the coming months.

Daily infections are the indicator that would fall the most according to the calculations of the North American institution. For the summer, Guanajuato is projected to register 56 new cases every 24 hours. In the worst case scenario, it estimates 585.

Everything depends on following precautions

In daily infections, the IHME calculates patients who have been tested, those who have not and those who are asymptomatic. Therefore, from the beginning, the number of COVID infected patients handled by this organization is almost 10 times greater than the number reported by the Ministry of Health.

At the highest peak of the pandemic in Guanajuato, which was recorded in mid-January, the IHME estimated that there were up to 18,000 daily infections in the state, adding those who were tested, the asymptomatic and those who did not undergo the test.

IHME forecasts are not exact and may vary depending on the behavior of society and the measures implemented by the authorities, among other factors.

In the specific case of Guanajuato, the entity has been well above the worst scenarios predicted by experts from the University of Washington.

For example, as of March 7 of this year, the IHME estimated that Guanajuato would have 9,295 accumulated deaths. This figure fell short of the 9,987 deaths reported by the authorities.

MCMH